Yes we can
Our sources have confirmed that Nvidia is working hard to launch its first DirectX 11 in this year. Well informed sources are telling us that the plan is to launch in late Q4 2009, but they can still make it before the end of the year.
Many people were reporting that Nvidia's high end GPU, something that we all call GT300, might be delayed for early 2010. Well we can tell you that this won’t happen, but we strongly believe that Nvidia cannot make it in time for the Windows 7 launch.
ATI has every chance to launch its DirectX 11 before Nvidia. Nvidia will come just a month or two later, but still in 2009.
When we ran the TSMC yield story, we were left owing you an explanation. Time to clear that up too… why does TSMC has "f***** up" yields? Because the chip "some say it doesn't exist" has disastrous yields. We refuse to be drawn into the speculation about whether the GT300 exists or not, since we have enough data that would send nVidia Legal our way - but that was in the past, green guys learned better ;-)
According to our sources close to the [silicon] heart of the matter, the problem that nVidia has are yields in the 20 percentage range. You've guessed, that is waaay [insert several "a"] too low for launching volume production. Even when TSMC improves the leakage issues [the company claims that the leakage issues are now the thing of the past], nVidia will probably send a new revision of silicon - the yields have to be get high enough to earn a little bit of money.
The current situation is that three faulty chips in order to yeild one working one is much too much, since those faulty chips aren't exactly "GTX 360" or "slower Quadro FX" grade material. Some faulty parts might work under forced cooling, but the high leakage is an issue with the current graphics card layout. We won't go into the whole instability, does not work etc situation. As we all know, the graphics chips are at the worst possible position, facing down [unless you put them in testbed/desktop case]. With high leakage parts, the thermal shockwave is sent through the organic packaging to the PCB [Printed Circuit Board] and can cause extensive failure, like nVidia learned with their $200 million mistake called "bad bumps" or simply "bumpgate".
We have the exact number, but in order to protect the parties involved, we are going to refrain from posting the exact yield figure on first batch of chips. All we can say is - not yet ready for production.
Availability of 40nm graphics processors might get worse before it gets better. According to EE Times, TSMC—the biggest manufacturers of GPUs for both AMD and Nvidia—continues to experience poor 40nm yields. Those poor yields may affect shipments for the second half of this year, the site says.
Here's the word from FBR Capital Markets analyst Mehdi Hosseini, as quoted by EE Times:
In fact, not only do our checks suggest 40-nm yields but, to our surprise, these have remained below 30 percent, affecting shipments in 2H09 . . . We believe yields are as low as 20 percent to 30 percent, which may explain the recent management change. We think some key customers who are increasing 40-nm tape-outs have already started to evaluate other foundries (UMC) in case yields do not improve soon.
Reportedly, TSMC recently admitted to yield problems at the 40nm half-node, but it claimed those were "largely fixed." The foundry firm also replaced its CEO last month.
Despite the poor 40nm yields, EE Times says TSMC did relatively well financially in the second quarter. Projections suggest TSMC grew its revenue to $2.3 billion and its net income to $758.2 million, increases of 90% and 1,487%, respectively, over the previous quarter. Both figures are lower than those from a year before, though.
Notable products using TSMC-built 40nm GPUs include AMD's Radeon HD 4770, Nvidia's newest mobile GPUs, and AMD's Mobility Radeon HD 4800 series.
Late, but volume shipment in Q1
Once more we have confirmed that the chip that we call GT300 is on schedule to launch in 2009. The way it looks now the chip should be launching roughly in November timeframe and of course it will be a high end product.
Nvidia has put in a lot of effort in order to beat ATI and keep the performance leadership, as this is something it cannot afford to lose. The real volume shipment of Nvidia’s new DirectX 11, 40nm high end part should be expected in early Q1 2010 but since $599+ products are not selling in millions of units, Nvidia should be able to ship sufficient cards to consumers.
Even if something goes wrong, Nvidia will still show its hardware in late Q4 2009 just as they did with Geforce GTX 295 dual chip and ship it in early Q1 2010, as the strategy worked last time.
Zasto bi bankrotirala? Nisam cuo da su u finansijskim problemima.To samo u slucaju da ne bankrotira do 2015-te :trust: .
Svasta. ATI je ziveo i pre negp sto su poceli cipsetove da rade, nV cak i da batali nForce, nema razloga da bankrotira, mislim da su i dalje ispred AMDa po prodaji grafickih karti.Mnogo razloga.
nForce je nestao kao pojam, njihov IGP takodje nestaje, nova arhitektura u GT300 im zadaje mnogo muka, u sred ekonomske krize ciljaju na 600$ GPU.... to nece izaci na dobro.
Nije to ATI da ih neko tako lako kupi.:dpa ako krene lose u najgorem slucaju kupice ih Intel![]()
Nije to ATI da ih neko tako lako kupi.:d
Kakve veze imaju fanboyevi sa situacijom u nVidia-i?:trust:Ne mogu se kladiti u to, naravno bice uvek "fanboy"-a, ali ja mislim da se od mainstream i low end kartica zivi, a nV sigurno nema dobru ponudu u tom segmentu, a kako stvari stoje ne bih mogao da se kladim da ce imati.
Sa druge strane ATi je pokazao da moze da napravi odlican mainstream proizvod (4770) i vec ima working DX11 chip.
@Zeljko
Najverovatnije, da im pomogne u pravljenju IGP-a za i5.
Fanboy ATIja ili nVidia-e, u cemu je razlika?Pa uvek ce biti neko ko ce dati dva polovna juga, da bi u kucistu imao logo zelenih.
Da, prodaje se dobro, samo pitanje dali vise od 4550,4650 i 4670, mi mozemo do sutra da lupamo sta se vise prodaje.
Pa ima veze, jer je lakse od working chipa napraviti karticu, nego praviti prelazak sa DX10 na DX11, sa DDR3 na DDR5, sa 55nm na 40nm + sve promene u arhitekturi, zar ne?
AMD manje vredi iz nekih drugih razloga, a njemu cene akcija rastu, sto sumnjam da je slucaj sa zelenima.
Morris Chang, the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, said during a conference in Taipei, Taiwan, said that yield rate of the company’s 40nm manufacturing process is now considerably higher than it was earlier this year. This is a good news for TSMC’s customers who can now deliver their products in higher volumes.
According to the chairman, at present yield rate on the company’s flagship 40nm node is 60% (which means that 60% of chips on a single wafer are fully operational), up considerably from 30% earlier this year. The foundry expects to process around 30 thousand wafers on 40nm in the third quarter, Mr. Chang is reported to have said by DigiTimes web-site.
TSMC also indicated that shipments of 40nm/45nmwafers tripled those of Q1 and surpassed 1% of total wafer sales. Meanwhile, the lion’s share of TSMC’s wafer revenues (35%) comes from wafers made using 150nm or even more mature processes, 110nm/130nm account for 13%, 90nm process technology accounted for 23% of wafer revenues and 65nm/55nm accounted for 28%.
TSMC this week announced consolidated revenue of NT$74.21 billion ($2.263 billion), net income of NT$24.44 billion ($745 million), and diluted earnings per share of NT$0.94 ($0.14 per ADS unit) for the second quarter ended June 30, 2009.
Year-over-year, second quarter revenue decreased 15.8% while net income and diluted EPS decreased 15% and 13.9%, respectively. Compared to first quarter of 2009, second quarter results represent an 87.9% increase in revenue, and an increase of 1467.9% in net income and an increase of 1466.5% in diluted EPS. All figures were prepared in accordance with R.O.C. GAAP on a consolidated basis. Gross margin for the quarter was 46.2%, operating margin was 33.9%, and net margin was 32.9%.
TSMC’s 40nm Yields Improved to 60% - Company.
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