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Zračak nade na pomolu za AMD

Daleko je to od sudbine jednog Enrona, Parmalata ili Daewoo-a ,ako se Fr0sty tome nada. Jer nekome je ipak stalo da bilanca bude koliko toliko realna, umjesto da se izvode računovodstvene egzibicije koje se kasnije skupo plaćaju kad sve izađe na vidjelo. Stoga i ogroman otpis ATIjevog good will-a. A to se onda preslikava i na vrijednost akcija. Daleko je važnije da sve stoji na zdravim temeljima, da se ima realna polazišna točka pa makar to bilo u crvenom. Deal s Arapima je trenutno bolji od bilo kakvog kredita i rješava problem ulaganja u proizvodnju.
 
Ace Rimmer je napisao(la):
Daleko je to od sudbine jednog Enrona, Parmalata ili Daewoo-a ,ako se Fr0sty tome nada.
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Zasto bih se nadao da ce AMD da propadne pa posle da prodajem bubreg Intelu za procesor, a nema ovde nikakve paralele sa Enronom i slicnim prevarama ovo je samo kratkovido poslovanje i uletanje u jako veliko trosenje kad mu vreme nije.

Fr0sty je napisao(la):
step1:
Prvo malo bacite pogled na cfs (= Cash flow statement //ako neko nije shvatio) cisto da imate neku opstu sliku u glavi kako se krecu tokovi novca date firme
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ci&q=NYSE:AMD
(ako vam neka stavka u bilo kom izvestaju nije jasna, wikipedija je keva, a i sve su to u osnovi proste stvari)

step2:
Sledeci na redu su prihodi i rashodi pa pogledate income statement na:
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=NYSE:AMD
The good - Pogledamo prvo ukupne prihode (total revenue) vidimo da su uzeli 1,776Bn.$ , sto je sasvim pristojno za AMD
The bad - Sledece sto se pogleda kad smo vec videli prihode su logicno tekuci rashodi (operating expenses), u ovom slucaju 1,645Bn.$ uglavnom kao sto je u IT-ju uobicajeno najveca stavka je R&D sa nesto vise od 400 miliona ali i operativni troskovi preduzeca sa 300 i kusur miliona (sto se ovde uklapa u za hardversku industriju ocekivanih 15-20% prihoda)
Dakle za sada nije sjajno, ali nije ni lose ipak nam je posle odbijanja ovih treoskova od prihoda ostalo 130 milona (u ovom kvartalu nije Hektorov famozni bonus :p)
The ugly - Sada treba odbiti placene kamate i druge zle troskove (zle zato sto je ovaj deo obicno ubica za firmu) vidimo da su platili 80 miliona kamte na kapital i jos neke sitnice 4 :p a posto su savesno platili porez na vreme :p jos imaju skoro 50 miliona. Isplatili su 7 milona manjinskim akcionarima (blago nijma :p) i jos 9 milki za investiranje u druge kompanije i ostade im 32 miliona. Tu bi celoj prici bio kraj i rekli bi da su ipak u plusu, kada na red ne bi dosli misteriozni extra items (citaj dugovi) koji ih sabiju u minus 127 miliona (sta bi tek bilo bez onog otpisa dugova I wonder :p)

step3:
Posto sada znamo zasto je stratna linija na cfs-u minus 127 miliona malo se vratimo na njega:
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ci&q=NYSE:AMD
Ali poslepodne, mora da se ruca :
Kliknite za proširenje...

Dakle da nastavim:
Bio je odlican rucak :p
step3:
Posto sada znamo zasto je stratna linija na cfs-u minus 127 miliona malo se vratimo na njega:
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ci&q=NYSE:AMD
U sekciji za gotovinu od operativnih aktivnosti prvo idu zastarevanje, amortizacija i sl. (Da u cfs su oni pozitivna stavka, zato sto iako smanjuju neto prihod firme ne umanjuju joj kesh). Ono sto ovde bode oci je deficit radnog kapitala od skoro 500 miliona sto je vrlo veliki problem (znaci da su tekuce obaveze mnogo vece od tekucih prihoda, kada se pogleda malo vise u nazad vidi se da su tekuci prihodi manje vise na istom nivou kao sto su i bili, dakle razlog za ovaj opasni deficit lezi u velikom skoku tekucih obaveza) sto bi rekli oni marksisticki profesori "trose supstancu"
U sledecoj sekciji (investing activities) su kapitalne investicije (objekti, masine, proizvodne linije, ... i tako te konkretne stvari u koje se ulaze na dugi rok) gde su ulozili dosta malo (skoro sigurno zbog nedostatka gotovine) sto ih moze mnogo kostati u buducnosti (mada nije ni da imaju izbora trenutno). U ovo other investing cash flow items ulaze ukupni neto prihodi od prodaje koji su prilicno niski naspram ovih drugih iznosa.
U poslednjoj sekciji je iskaz novcanih tokova vezanih uglavnom za aktivnosti oko deonica koje nam ovde nisu ni toliko bitne i tako prikazuju samo jos malo zaduzivanja.

step5:
Zakljucak:
Da ne bi ulazio u to kako se racunaju indikatori za finansijsku analizu (dosta vam je ekonomije samo jos matematika fali :p) evo ovde nekih baznih vec izracunatih:
http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?tkr=amd
vidimo odmah da je EBIT losh (odnos zarade i prihoda), prihod na ulozeni kapital (Return on Invested Capital) je uzasan ... skoro sve lose. I ono sto nema ovde odnos kolicine gotovine i dugova sto je blagi uzas posto je skoro 400%.
Dakle istovremeno su neprofitabilni i tanki sa keshom, dugovi ponovo rastu, a slabo dugorocno investiraju. Jedine dve stvari koje im idu na ruku su dil sa Arapima i to sto izgleda (jos nije zvanicno) vec drugi kvartal za redom beleze rast u prodaji (za Q4 '08 izgleda 14%, mada isto tako nezvanicno im je operativni kesh jos kraci skoro 400 miliona umesto prethodnih 200 i nesto).
Ako izguraju do kraja 2009-e bez neke katastrofe bice OK (ima puno stvari koje se i ne vide iz ovih izvestaja pa ima nade kao sto ime topica kaze, ali ...) u suprotnom mrka kapa bice nekih gadnih restruktuiranja i kupovina koje ko zna kako ce da se zavrse.

Inace da bude jasno zasto sam iskritikovao Igoricu sto poredi finansijski Intel i AMD kao babe i zabe evo njihovih izvestaja pa prosudite i sami o kolikoj se razlici radi:
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=NASDAQ:INTC
http://finance.google.com/finance?fstype=ci&q=NASDAQ:INTC
Pogledajte tu kolicinu investicija (kao manja drzava), emituju deonice i isplacuju dividende, a i dalje uvecavaju novcanu masu na raspolaganju.
http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?tkr=intc
O razlici u nacinu poslovanja ne vredi ni raspravljati.
 
Poslednja izmena:
ATI doesn’t have GTX295 dual answer

At least not that we know off


We expect ATI will drop the price of Radeon HD 4870 X2 cards soon , as Nvidia will launch Geforce GTX 295. Until it releases a chip that will replace RV770 ATI doesn’t really have any products to fight Nvidia’s latest update.

The 40nm chips are going to launch toward the middle of the year, at least the performance part will and you do know that R700, Radeon HD 4870 X2 actually has two of RV770 chips. Once ATI releases a 40nm successor to the chip, you can expect a new dual chip card.

The price drop is imminent they simply have to do it and this will put some additional pressure on the already shaken Nvidia. 2009 is expected to be a rough year and ATI will certainly not give out without a decent fight, it just doesn’t have the right chips to fight back.
 
Expected to become available in November, AMD's energy-efficient Athlon 2650e and Athlon X2 3250e processors and now said to finally be on their way to store shelves. Based on the good ol' K8 architecture, the 1.6 GHz single-core 2650e and 1.5 GHz dual-core 3250e come in a AM2 package, have a TDP of 15W and 22W respectively, and are set to cost under $50.

Targeting Intel's single- and dual-core Atoms, the two Athlons are aimed for use within nettops and other low-power systems.

http://www.tcmagazine.com/comments.php?id=23827&catid=2
 
Gonzo novinarstvo na delu, prvo je nV propadala jer nije imala odgovor na x2, sada ATI propada jer nema odgovor na GTX295... strasno...
 
Nece AMD propasti jer nema trenutno odgovor na GTX 295! Ali bi se mogao naci u nezavidnoj situaciji ako ne poveca prodaju procesora. Prije pola godine su drzali oko 13% CPU trzista, a sve ostalo Intel! To je premalo!
 
Znači ponovo otpuštanje radnika u AMD-u, 9%. Plus plate će biti smanjene.

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11509&Itemid=1

I pismo Dirk Meyer-a svim zaposlenima:

http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11522&Itemid=1


ps- stvarno je vreme da i ja počnem neki zanat da mogu da zaradim nešto nezavisno od kompanije gde radim jer i nas mogu da šutnu ovako bez problema ;) (naravno ovo nema veze sa AMD-om, samo spominjem to u vezi svih otpuštanja kojih ima sve više u puno firmi..)
 
Poslednja izmena:
AMD odbacuje GPU tehnologiju
AMD nastavlja da objavljuje vesti o smanjenju svojih aktiva u okviru novog izveštaja koji je objavljen 22. januara. Prvo se radilo o smanjenju broja radnika dok se ovaj put govori o odbacivanju grafičke tehnologije za mobilna rešenja. AMD je oglasio prodaju svoje GPU tehnologije zajedno sa jednim brojem zaposlenih a kupac je već pronađen i ovaj put to je kompanija Qualcomm koja će sve to preuzeti za $65 miliona. Kada je AMD prvi put najavio da će obezbediti istu objedinjenu arhitekturu koja stoji iza Xbox 360 i za mobilne uređaje, svi su bili iznenađeni budući da niko nije imao slične planove. Qualcomm je bila jedna od prvih kompanija koja je licencirala ovu tehnologiju.
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http://www.itsvet.com/arhiva/2009-01-23#20581
 
To je lose prevedena vest, AMD je prodao handheld/multimedia odeljenje Qualcomm-u.

Mada sudeci po poslednjem kvartalu (Q4 2008 = gubitak od 1.4mlrd$) bolje da prodaju CPU business :D
 
Poslednja izmena:
AMD chip fab nearing a reality (Abu Dhabi $9 billion investment in AMD)

www.tradingmarkets.com je napisao(la):
MALTA, Jan 25, 2009 (Albany Times Union - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- AMD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shareholders will gather in Austin,
Texas on Feb. 10 to authorize an investment by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi that could top $9 billion.


The transaction, which includes the spin-off of AMD's manufacturing operations in Germany into a joint venture called The Foundry Co., will fund construction of a $4.6 billion chip fab at the Luther Forest Technology Campus in Malta.

The global economic downturn and a precipitous drop in the price of oil -- the major source of funding for Abu Dhabi and other Gulf states -- has worried some about the future of the project.

But Persian Gulf analysts say oil would have to drop a lot more to have a real impact on Abu Dhabi's investments.

And now things are heating up. The shareholder vote was set just nine days ago, and there are other encouraging signs that the project is moving forward toward a summer groundbreaking.
"I'm very excited about it," said Michael Relyea, executive director of the Luther Forest Technology Campus Economic Development Corp., the nonprofit that manages Luther Forest. "It's very reassuring."

After the deal with Abu Dhabi closes -- a transaction that should take place within 48 hours of a successful shareholder vote -- the 222 acres needed for the plant are expected to be purchased from Luther Forest relatively quickly. The purchase price is expected to be at between $7 million and $8 million, according to documents filed with the Saratoga County Industrial Development Agency.

Then in March or early April, once the ground begins to thaw, Foundry will begin tree clearing and root removal, getting the site ready for full-scale construction.

A groundbreaking is planned by July, when a $1.2 billion state incentive package for the project expires, although the groundbreaking isn't required at that time under the agreement with New York state.

Although road construction activities at Luther Forest have stopped for the winter, water line construction continues, Relyea said, And legal, engineering and logistical work also continues.

"All the behind the scenes work is still being done," Relyea said.

This follows AMD receiving key approvals from New York state for the transfer of the $1.2 billion package to Foundry, and national security clearance from the U.S. Treasury Department's Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.

Still, with all the stars seemingly aligned, there could be unforeseen obstacles that the project might face in the wake of the financial meltdown.

Last week, AMD announced a plan to shed 1,100 jobs -- 9 percent of its global workforce -- and also cut salaries, including those of its top executives.

And on Thursday, AMD announced that it lost $3 billion in 2008, only slightly better than the $3.3 billion loss it posted in 2007.

And it's no secret that the fortunes of oil-rich nations like Abu Dhabi have suffered during the financial crisis.

After all, a barrel of crude oil, which was trading for $147 during the summer, is now trading for slightly above $40, and even dipped below $35 recently.

And a new report by the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York City think tank, says that sovereign wealth funds in the Persian Gulf experienced huge losses in 2008 and will likely lose more this year.

Officials from the Abu Dhabi fund that is investing in Foundry did not return calls and e-mails seeking comment.

But analysts who follow Persian Gulf affairs and AMD don't believe that the drop in oil prices will hinder Foundry's plans.

Thomas Mattair, an author and former director of the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, D.C., says that Abu Dhabi only needs oil to sell at $36 a barrel to meet its budget, according to data he has seen from the Institute of International Finance.

Since oil averaged well above that in 2008 and may likely remain above that this year, he doesn't see a problem with investments it has committed to so far.

"Abu Dhabi should be under less pressure to slow down or postpone projects than the other (Gulf) oil producers," Mattair said

F. Gregory Gause III, a University of Vermont political science professor who focuses on the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, says Abu Dhabi's investment in projects such as Foundry aren't about economic diversification of their oil economy as much as getting the best return on earnings.

"They hope that they will be able to get a good return on their savings, and that is why they are investing in these kinds of projects," Gause said.

Abu Dhabi could also generate jobs for its own people, since the AMD deal could include future fabs built in the small city state.

Andy Ng, an analyst for the Chicago research company Morningstar Inc., agrees that it doesn't look like the price of oil -- or the economy in general -- will derail Foundry's plans.

"It appears that Abu Dhabi is committed to it," Ng said.

In the meantime, Relyea is starting to turn his attention to trying to market the rest of the 1,380 acres at Luther Forest to companies that will supply the chip fab or other companies involved in nanotechnology and computer chip manufacturing that want to be located near the factory. He says that he has already received serious interest from companies he won't name, but his hand will strengthen significantly once construction begins.

"We have to go sell the campus now," Relyea said. "We expect that will be an easier sell once they put a shovel in the ground."
Fab 4X timeline

Here are some key milestones expected for the construction of AMD's $4.6 billion computer chip factory in Malta.

Feb. 10: AMD shareholders will gather in Austin, Texas to vote on a proposal to spin-off AMD's manufacturing to a joint venture with the Emirate of Abu Dhabi called The Foundry Co.

March 7: Transaction between AMD and Abu Dhabi must close by this date, although AMD says deal should close 24 to 48 hours after the shareholder vote.

March/April: Tree clearing and grubbing planned at chip fab site

July: Groundbreaking expected by this month

Source: AMD
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http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/2141872/

Dugacak je tekst pa sam ga delimicno stavio u spoiler.
@Bad MF : Jel' ovako bolje ;)
 
Poslednja izmena:
Hmm, nadajmo se ce amd da pocne da posluje pozitivno pre nego sto arapi ostanu bez nafte :d :D :d
 
AMD fabs now called Globalfoundries
globalfoundrieslogo_small.jpg
 
Nijedna od tih firmi ne moze da propadne jer konkurentu ostaje monopol i enormna zarada sto je prilika koju veliki igraci naravno nece propustiti. Ova se prica ponavlja godinama.
 
Pa pred Novu Godinu su bili toliko pali da ih je ovaj skok vratio na neko normalno stanje.
Što se tiče grafičkog dela dobru su strategiju odabrali za ova krizna vremena - stavljanje prioriteta na smanjivane troškova i prodajne cene umesto jurenja vrhunskih performansi po svaku cenu.
Međutim, srž njihovog biznisa - mikroprocesori su trenutno OK ali po meni nemaju svetlu budućnost.
 
:)
 
starac je napisao(la):
AMD stock sinks on profit-margin worries.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AMD-stock-sinks-on-apf-3411890502.html?x=0
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The analyst estimates don't break out the two companies. Overall, analysts expect AMD's revenue to decline 32 percent from last year to $1.22 billion.
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Taj pad i nije nista neocekivano obzirom na situaciju na svim trzistima, cini mi se da je pad u celoj industriji u proseku oko 20%, tako da je samo nekih 10-ak % zapravo nastao zbog AMD-a ostalo je manje vise bilo neizbezno (deo teksta koji to objasnjava kasnim prelaskom na novi proces je prazna spekulacija najgore vrste, do toga je moglo doci i iz milion drugih razloga).
 
Naredni period neće biti ništa lakši za AMD
Na desktopu od septembra stižu i5 i i3 procesori koji će dodatno izvršiti pritisak na već tanku profitnu marginu AMD-a. Od Nove godine Intel će pobeći još jedan korak sa prelaskom na 32nm proces proizvodnje.
U severima, Nehalem serveri su konačno tu i AMD će nastaviti da gubi tržišni udeo.
Grafička divizija ima šanse da dobro posluje ove jeseni, ali to neće biti dovoljno da vrati AMD u profitabilnost.
Na kraju dosta zavisi od "novih" mobilnih AMD platformi u kojima do sada nije ima previše uspeha.:S:
 
Čim je najavljen multicore Opteron i skori avejlibiliti 32nm čipova, akcije su skočile... e sad koliko će ostati na tom nivou...?

P.S. Naslov treda nikad ne prestaje da me oduševljava...
 
byMaX je napisao(la):
Čim je najavljen multicore Opteron i skori avejlibiliti 32nm čipova...
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Samo da opet ne z....u sve kao sa mobilnim platformama, posto im je to izgleda uslo u naviku u poslednje vreme. Naprave sasvim solidan i konkurentan proizvod i onda sve upropaste marketinski tako sto daju sve one sulude "The next big thing" najave. Ako isto ponove i sa ovim Opteronima treba da bese par managera na banderu posle skupstine akcionara, mislim da su dovoljno vikali "Vuk!" za poslednje dve/tri godine.
 
Evo malo priče da nam svima digne moral: http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=3614
Izgleda da je Hektor ipak znao šta radi:
Debelo prodaš "know how" Arapima, napraviš firmu sa delom američkog kapitala da im država ne bi zabranila izvoz visoke tehnologije. Takođe zadovoljiš državnu administraciju planom o gradnji nove extra fabrike za preko 1.400 visokoobrazovanih ljudi i u isto vreme dobiješ sredstva da možeš tehnološki pratiti Intel.
Još samo da Dirk & Co uspeju da srede arhitekturu AMD CPU-ova i eto nama veselja još mnogo godina!
 
ja u ove priche o prodajama nikad nisam verovao, a shto se tiche AMD vs intel, ja sve vishe ljudi znam koji se odluchuju za deneb/heka, nego za intele, shto zbog cene, shto zbog dobrih frekvencija procesora, i univerzalnog soketa
 
Igoritza je napisao(la):
ja u ove priche o prodajama nikad nisam verovao, a shto se tiche AMD vs intel, ja sve vishe ljudi znam koji se odluchuju za deneb/heka, nego za intele, shto zbog cene, shto zbog dobrih frekvencija procesora, i univerzalnog soketa
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da samo sto Srbija nije svet tako da ko kod nas sta preferira ili namece ne odrazava se na akcije AMD-a
 
Ovo si upravu.

Kad se setim ja sam imao dobri stari Venice 3000+ u 939ci, a rodjak iz amerike imao neki Pentium 4 na 2.6GHz (valjda) u 775, secam se da ga je Venice sio i uzduz i popreko, a njegov pentium je bio duplo skuplji. On je tad bio ubedjen da je Pentium D, koji je kostao duplo vise, bolji od X2-jke.

A da ne govorim od Dell-u i Apple-u koji prodaju samo intele, jer imaju povlascenu cenu na njih. Dzabe to sto 90% ljudi na benchu zna da je AMD u nekim segmentima bolja kupovina, kad Dell proda vise racunara za jedan dan, nego sto mi kupimo za mesec dana (ovo govorim figurativno ;) ).
 
Poslednja izmena:
chupo92 je napisao(la):
A da ne govorim od Dell-u i Apple-u koji prodaju samo intele, jer imaju povlascenu cenu na njih. Dzabe to sto 90% ljudi na benchu zna da je AMD u nekim segmentima bolja kupovina, kad Dell proda vise racunara za jedan dan, nego sto mi kupimo za mesec dana (ovo govorim figurativno ;) ).
Kliknite za proširenje...

http://www.dell.com/us/en/business/desktops/optix_740/pd.aspx?refid=optix_740&s=bsd&cs=04

http://www.dell.com/us/en/business/...625/pd.aspx?refid=desktop-xps-625&s=bsd&cs=04

http://www.dell.com/us/en/business/....aspx?refid=server-poweredge-m905&s=bsd&cs=04


Ima toga jos, ali i ovo je dosta... nadam se ;)
 
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